The Nuggets graphic is a great idea, but I’m curious how it changes if you do the same graph but with playoff numbers instead of regular season. I know that would be a bit self-referential for the series Denver participated in, but I think it’s clear the playoffs are a significantly different game than regular season (see Heat, Sixers, Kings, Celtics etc.).
Also the disrespect on the Celtics is wild my guy, who exactly are the AT LEAST 7 of 8 playoff teams who would be favored? We’ve got the Suns, Lakers and Pelicans easily, and I think it’s pretty even with the Mavs given Luka’s D or the Clippers given their perennial injuries
So the sample for playoff numbers is pretty tough - 1st round there's no other sample, 2nd round just six games. I'm not sure the playoffs are SO different - C's have mostly lived up to regular season billing in postseason every year even if it feels disappointing.
Haha I'm saying if you swapped out the C's with another team. The C's are my heavy favorites over every single team in the tournament (pre-KP going down)
Agree the sample is smaller, but if we’re trying to predict playoff success I’d rather work off the smaller more accurate sample than include games over the Pistons.
Ahhhh I take it all back lol, that’s quite generous actually. I think the Thunder and Wolves are pretty close but the C’s would probably get the betting markets.
I'd push back on the idea of a more accurate sample - how you do against playoff / good teams is actually less predictive of your success than how you do against all teams.
That probably was true in 2011, and might remain true but would love to see an analysis from sometime after the 3 point revolution really took off. But I am also too lazy to go looking for it 😂
The Nuggets graphic is a great idea, but I’m curious how it changes if you do the same graph but with playoff numbers instead of regular season. I know that would be a bit self-referential for the series Denver participated in, but I think it’s clear the playoffs are a significantly different game than regular season (see Heat, Sixers, Kings, Celtics etc.).
Also the disrespect on the Celtics is wild my guy, who exactly are the AT LEAST 7 of 8 playoff teams who would be favored? We’ve got the Suns, Lakers and Pelicans easily, and I think it’s pretty even with the Mavs given Luka’s D or the Clippers given their perennial injuries
So the sample for playoff numbers is pretty tough - 1st round there's no other sample, 2nd round just six games. I'm not sure the playoffs are SO different - C's have mostly lived up to regular season billing in postseason every year even if it feels disappointing.
Haha I'm saying if you swapped out the C's with another team. The C's are my heavy favorites over every single team in the tournament (pre-KP going down)
Agree the sample is smaller, but if we’re trying to predict playoff success I’d rather work off the smaller more accurate sample than include games over the Pistons.
Ahhhh I take it all back lol, that’s quite generous actually. I think the Thunder and Wolves are pretty close but the C’s would probably get the betting markets.
I'd push back on the idea of a more accurate sample - how you do against playoff / good teams is actually less predictive of your success than how you do against all teams.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/indexe77b.html?p=8811
That probably was true in 2011, and might remain true but would love to see an analysis from sometime after the 3 point revolution really took off. But I am also too lazy to go looking for it 😂